In an upwards revised prospect the Commission said the region will grow 4.1% in 2010 with positive growth trends for most of the countries, but noted that doubts on whether the economic recovery will persist in time given the uncertainty coming from global markets.
“The worst of the crisis has been left behind. The motors of growth have already been restarted, but we still don’t know how much will fuel last,” said Alicia Bárcena, Secretary Executive of ECLAC.
The preliminary balance says that recovery will be stronger in South America and Central America (excluding Mexico) with growth rates of 4.7% and 3%, while the Caribbean will have a more modest expansion, 1.8%.
According to the 2010 prospects, Brazil will be leading growth next year with 5.5%, together with the 5% for Peru and Uruguay. Bolivia, Chile and Panama are expected to grow 4.5% while Argentina and Suriname will be in the range of 4%, Mexico, 3% together with Costa Rica and Dominican Republic.
The report points out that the recovery from the global slowdown was quicker in the region because of counter-cyclical policies which enabled to effectively address external turbulences such as the fall in interest rates, the increase of government banks share in credit supply, massive government spending and a full range of social services programs related to consumption subsidies and support for poor families.
This year (2009) the greatest contractions were registered in Mexico and in some Central American and Caribbean countries. Overall modest growth rates are expected for South America with the exception of Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay and Venezuela.
The Preliminary Balance also estimates the international economic crisis generated losses for 240 billion dollars in Latinamerica. The economic inefficiency in 2009 was generated by a reduction in foreign investment, export and money flows highlighted the Eclac report.
Latin America Economies Set for Big Rebound in 2010, Led By Brazil