USMCA Faces an Uncertain Future as US Seeks Changes

The US administration has decided not to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in its current form, putting nearly $2 trillion in annual North American trade under fresh uncertainty and opening the door to a prolonged review of the landmark trade pact.

The announcement came as the three countries reached the July 1 deadline for the agreement’s mandatory six-year joint review. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington would continue negotiations with Canada and Mexico to address what it sees as the pact’s shortcomings and persistent U.S. trade deficits.

While the agreement remains in force, the decision triggers annual reviews for up to 10 years, rather than automatically extending the deal for another 16-year term.

President Donald Trump has signaled he prefers separate bilateral trade agreements with Canada and Mexico rather than a single trilateral pact.

He has argued that the USMCA allows some foreign manufacturers to bypass U.S. tariffs by routing exports through Mexico or Canada and has also criticized Canada’s dairy import restrictions.

The move has raised concerns among businesses and trade experts, who warn that annual reviews could create investment uncertainty across the deeply integrated North American economy.

Mexico and Canada, the two largest export markets for U.S. goods, have also expressed opposition to replacing the USMCA with separate bilateral agreements. Further U.S.-Mexico negotiations are expected later this month.