No School, No Work: The Worrisome Expansion of LatAm’s ‘Ninis’

Young people in Latin America who neither study nor work — the so-called Ninis — are becoming a ticking time bomb for the region’s economies.

There are now 20 million Ninis, making up over 18% of Latin America’s youth aged 15 to 24, according to the ECLAC.

The crisis plays out unevenly across countries. Guatemala leads with a staggering 28.8% of youth disconnected from both school and work in 2023.

Honduras is close behind at 27.4%, while Colombia stands at 21.6%. In contrast, Bolivia (based on 2021 data) reports 10.3%, the Dominican Republic 11.9%, and Peru 12.2%. Among the region’s giants, Brazil (16%), Mexico (15.6%), and Argentina (13.4%) still struggle to pull their youth into productive paths.

Unless these countries act fast, the region risks losing its demographic advantage. “If these nations want to grow rich before they grow old, they can’t afford to leave these 20 million young people behind,” warn analysts.

Why Ninis Keep Rising

At the heart of the Nini explosion is a disconnect between education and the real world.

Dr. Martin Burt, CEO of Fundación Paraguay, and one of the most distinguished personalities in the region, blames outdated curricula and scarce job opportunities for the surge. Burt, who authored Who Owns Poverty, says many youths see education as a dead-end.

“It makes little difference to vulnerable members of society whether they complete secondary education or not,” he told Nearshore Americas.

Faced with irrelevant schooling, many drop out early, grabbing whatever subsistence jobs they can find — barely surviving, never thriving. Technical training exists, but it’s too costly for most poor families.

“When the curriculum feels outdated and irrelevant and employment opportunities remain scarce, it is hard to see education investment.”

Ninis Fuel Violence and Economic Stagnation

Ninis aren’t just idle — they are dangerously exposed to gangs and organized crime. Their vulnerability makes them easy recruits, feeding a vicious cycle: more youth in crime, more violence, less investment, slower growth — and inevitably, more Ninis.

There’s clear evidence linking education to public safety. The Wilson Center found that: “The more education local youth obtain the less violent their neighborhoods become.”

Between 2007 and 2012, the World Bank reported that every rise in the Nini population correlated with a 25% spike in homicides in Mexico.

This crisis hits hardest in Guatemala and Honduras, where poverty, weak institutions, and some of the world’s highest homicide rates converge.

By contrast, countries like Uruguay and Chile, with Nini rates around 11-13%, enjoy stronger economies, lower inequality, and greater social cohesion.

Burt warns that without serious investment in education aligned to market needs and formal employment opportunities, Latin America’s growth will remain capped by this youth crisis.

Former Chief of Staff of Paraguayan president, Burt’s foundation is tackling this head-on by blending entrepreneurship training with formal education, equipping graduates not just with diplomas but with practical skills and leadership to start their own businesses.

Job Market Gains Not Enough

Over the past decade, Latin America created a good number of jobs, but the Nini problem has refused to budge.

Considering the figures released by the International Labor Organization (ILO), youth unemployment fell by 4.5 percentage points to 13.4% in 2023. However, Nini numbers have barely shifted — dropping from 21.3% in 2015 to 19.7% in 2024.

While Arab and North African countries have even higher Nini rates, the economic fallout there is buffered by factors Latin America lacks. In nations like Saudi Arabia, citizens benefit from shared oil wealth, and criminal behavior meets harsh, often fatal punishments.

But in much of Latin America, criminal gangs operate with near impunity, deepening the Nini crisis.

In Central America, job opportunities don’t offer economic mobility. Low wages, informal jobs, and dead-end prospects push many young people toward crime gangs, where the earnings are sky-high.