Colombia’s Economy Beats Forecasts With Strongest Growth Since 2022

Colombia’s economy delivered an unexpected boost in the third quarter of 2025, expanding 3.6% year-on-year, well above market expectations and marking its fastest pace of growth in three years.

Figures from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) exceeded even the central bank’s forecast of around 3% growth.

The result lifted cumulative growth for the January–September period to 2.8%, putting full-year expansion on track at 2.8–3.2%, comfortably above the government’s earlier 2.5% target.

The rebound follows growth of 2.1% in the second quarter and a revised 2.6% in the first, pointing to a sustained recovery despite global pressures such as trade tensions and commodity price volatility. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose around 1.2–1.3% quarter-on-quarter, signaling solid underlying momentum.

Public administration, defense, education and health services led the expansion, surging 8% and contributing 1.3 percentage points to overall growth, the largest boost since 2022. DANE said higher government spending on security and social programs played a key role. Trade, transport, accommodation and food services rose 5.6%, supported by retail and tourism, while manufacturing grew just over 4%, driven by agro-industry and consumer goods.

Not all sectors shared in the upswing. Mining and quarrying contracted 5.7% amid weaker oil and coal output, and construction fell 1.5% as the housing downturn persisted.

The stronger-than-expected data has sharpened the debate at Banco de la República, where policymakers are weighing inflation risks against growth. Markets are now increasingly pricing a potential rate hike in early 2026 if domestic demand remains strong, underscoring how the Q3 surprise has reshaped Colombia’s near-term economic outlook.