Tim ZylaMIAMI — The United States is showing an unprecedented level of attention to Latin America and the Caribbean, but the region remains wary of Washington’s shifting tone and unpredictable policy direction, said Eric Farnsworth, senior associate of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, during a conversation with Nearshore Americas Founder and Chief Analyst Kirk Laughlin.
Speaking during a live discussion at Nexus Miami, Farnsworth said the new U.S. administration has placed “historic” priority on the Western Hemisphere. In just eight months, he noted, the Secretary of State, Treasury, Defense and Homeland Security have all visited the region — a level of engagement unseen in decades.
“I was in the Clinton White House,” Farnsworth recalled. “The first time a Secretary of State visited the Western Hemisphere back then was in the last year of the first term. What we’re seeing now is dramatically different.”
Mexico Relationship ‘Fundamental’ but Complex
Asked about the U.S. relationship with Mexico, Farnsworth called it “unique and inescapable,” citing the deep economic, security, and cultural ties between the two countries.
“Mexico is always going to get attention from the United States — one way or another,” he said. “The current Mexican government deserves credit for keeping the conversation going and not reacting to every comment or tweet. They’relooking at the long term.”
Farnsworth pushed back on the idea that U.S. engagement has become purely condescending.
“This administration is presenting its priorities directly,” he said. “You might call it a heavy-handed approach, but it’sgetting results. There’s more cooperation on extradition, more coordination on border issues — things we haven’t seen in a while.”
China’s Influence Seen as Pragmatic, Not Inspirational
The discussion turned to China’s growing footprint in the hemisphere — a development Farnsworth called “the most dramatic shift in inter-American relations this century.” Yet, he said, the appeal is largely transactional.
“I don’t get the sense that people in the region are in love with China or see it as a model,” Farnsworth said. “They’ll take the best deal on the table, but the U.S. is still the preferred partner for most.”
He added that China’s slowing economy and the rule-of-law environment in Latin America are natural constraints on Beijing’s expansion.
“Latin America can be a tough place to do business,” he said. “There are rules, regulations and expectations that don’talways suit the Chinese model.”
Colombia’s Transformation, Venezuela’s Uncertain Future
Farnsworth praised Colombia’s progress over the last three decades, calling it “a functioning democracy” that has come a long way since the 1990s.
“Back then, people were calling Colombia a failed state,” he said. “Now it’s one of the region’s most entrepreneurial, educated and business-focused countries.”
On Venezuela, he said U.S. policy appears to fit into a broader anti-narcotics strategy that designates certain cartels as terrorist organizations.
“That opens new legal authorities for the U.S. to act,” Farnsworth explained. “If drug traffickers are also government officials, that dual status creates opportunities for targeted action.”
He declined to predict where the crisis might be a year from now, but said the current posture reflects the administration’s“America First” agenda of protecting the homeland from perceived threats.
Support for Argentina a Political Gamble
Farnsworth described the U.S. decision to back Argentina with a $20 billion currency-swap agreement as“unprecedented.” He said prior administrations — including Obama and Biden — would have been unlikely to take such a step.
“This is clearly political,” he said. “The U.S. is betting big on President Milei’s reforms and hoping the Argentine people stay patient long enough to see results.”
Americas Act and Competing with China
Asked about the stalled Americas Act, Farnsworth said the legislation could become a tool to counter China’s influence by promoting nearshore investment and expanding the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) to other Latin American economies.
“If you really want to strengthen Western Hemisphere supply chains, you need to bring countries like Colombia or the Dominican Republic into the same trade framework as North America,” he said. “That’s what the Americas Act could do if it advances.”
He also argued that U.S. agencies such as the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) need to be repositioned from development aid to “strategic investment vehicles” that can compete directly with China on infrastructure.
Businesses Need Predictability
Laughlin asked Farnsworth what message business leaders should take from Washington’s shifting posture. Farnsworth’sanswer was blunt: predictability matters more than policy flavor.
“Businesses can adapt to almost anything, but they can’t operate in an environment that changes day to day,” he said.“Right now, the only certainty is uncertainty.”
He urged executives to hedge their bets and diversify relationships, citing Canada’s recent move to source more military and industrial contracts from Europe and Asia as an example of strategic hedging.
“Keep pressing Washington for clarity,” Farnsworth said. “Once the government settles on a policy, it has to stick with it. Otherwise, we’re just spinning our wheels.”
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