Nearshore Americas

Reasons to Doubt the Latest Travel Warnings from US Bureaucrats

Travel warnings issued by the U.S. State Department tend to generate more questions than answers. The newest list of ‘concerning’ countries in Latin America and the Caribbean is especially worthy of second-guessing.

The system has shown little improvement in recent years. Back in 2013, a U.S. State Department press officer admitted to Nearshore Americas that no formal methodology had been employed to decide on updates: “The factors that go into each one differ on a case-by-case basis and are deliberated upon keeping an abundance of caution in mind for the American traveler.”

Nowadays, this ambiguity is most evident in the Level 2 category. The U.S. State Department invites travelers to “Exercise Increased Caution” for those destinations. That alone doesn’t say much. However, each country’s profile does include guidelines and tips for avoiding recurring crime schemes.

By definition, the level seems to group countries with elevated rates of casual crime and some instability. In contrast, countries in levels 3 and 4 have political crises and/or criminal groups operating and even disputing state dominance in vast regions. However, some of Level 2’s countries could easily fit that criteria. Others are way better off and could be reasonably set in Level 1.

Generally, Level 2 demonstrates the absence of a clear and transparent methodology. This lack of clarity could affect investment, tourists, and tourism-based economies.

The U.S. State Department’s Travel Warning Levels for Latin America and the Caribbean as of January 1st, 2025

  • Level 4: Do Not TravelHaiti, Venezuela
  • Level 3: Reconsider Travel — Colombia, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Trinidad and Tobago
  • Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution —Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Peru, Uruguay
  • Level 1: Exercise Normal Precautions — Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Barbados, Curacao, French Guiana, French West Indies, Guadeloupe, Grenada, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname

The last changes were posted between Nov. 21 and Dec. 13. The U.S. State Department updated the warning levels for five Latin American countries: Suriname was lowered to Level 1; Cuba and Costa Rica entered Level 2; and the combination of social unrest and gang violence in Nicaragua and Honduras placed them at Level 3.

It is worth noting that Mexico has a special status: as neighbors, each of its states has a designated travel warning level and travel advisory guideline.

Chile, Cuba, Costa Rica, and Ecuador invite questioning Level 2

Level 2 has a vague definition. However, it tends to make this category a place where pretty normal security issues get mixed up with echoes of catastrophes and systemic problems.

Chilean president Gabriel Boric
Chilean president Gabriel Boric

Consider Chile. It sustained a Level 1 qualification until the wave of social protests in Latin America in late 2019. Level 3 and Level 4 status came and went with the pandemic, as was the case for most of the region. Today, the U.S. State Department’s categorization of Chile insists “social unrest” is a cause for Level 2 qualification.

Chilean political history has a long tradition of protesting. Recently, nothing has come close to matching the scale of 2019’s social uproar. Not even Gabriel Boric’s low approval rating (25.7%) has led to such a scenario. Also, Aymara indigenous peoples have held decades of tension with state authorities, but they too have laid relatively low since 2019.

Additionally, Chile reports the lowest murder rate among the four countries, at 5.8 per 100,000 people. Despite a 0.2% reduction from 2023, the topic has been controversial for Chilean politics. Yet the regional position remains: 2023 reports showed their murder rates (4.5 per 100,00) to be three times less than what Costa Rica suffered (17.2), and over ten times less than Ecuador’s violent landscape (44.5).

Costa Rica presents a peculiar case. The country is one of the world’s most carefully protected and tourism-attractive ecosystems and is a vibrant nearshoring hub. However, since the pandemic, its crime rates have skyrocketed to record-breaking heights each year.

In 2023, it became the only country in Central America to report more crimes than in previous years. Experts attributed the reports to an “organized crime invasion”.

Regarding Cuba, the island used to have a Level 4 status back in 2021. It was due to social unrest and Havana Syndrome: a severe, brain-damaging virus that mysteriously affected U.S. diplomats. Over the years, the issue was updated to Level 3, and then 4.

Nowadays, Insight Crime argues Cuba’s murder rate reports are not reliable. Scanning through the news, it’s evident that Level 2 status contrasts with recent months’ situations:

Cuban people cooking on the street, using flashlights, because of blackouts.
Cuban people cooking on the street, using flashlights, because of blackouts.

Last year, Cuba suffered a severe electricity crisis, the likes of which had not been seen in recent years. Understanding the implications is crucial. Not only is productivity hit, but crime surges, and becomes more difficult to study through statistics. Especially when and where governance grows weak.

Moreover, Hurricane Rafael struck Cuba last November. While repairs have been made, several power grids went down last month, and although they’ve been restored, planned power shortages persist.

Finally, Ecuador presents another case in which travelers may need to do more than “Exercise Increased Caution”. U.S. State Department’s Travel Advisory site offers insights into its particularly high-risk regions. It also details violent crimes, such as homicide and kidnapping, to be widespread and key reasons for social unrest and political instability throughout recent years.

It is precisely the U.S. State Department’s clarity on the seriousness of the subject that makes Level 2 designation contradictory. Both the entity’s description of the crises and local news make Ecuador a country more akin to Colombia, Jamaica, or Nicaragua, yet the categorization remains unfitting, demonstrating once more how inattentive the system is. It even leaves out the fact the country has seen harsh and prolonged electricity shortage seasons as of late, and they don’t seem to be going away anytime soon.

Juan Diego Barrera Sandoval

Colombian business, politics, and cultural journalist. Managing Editor for Nearshore Americas and El Enemigo.

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