Narayan AmmachchiMoody’s Analytics projects Latin America’s economy to expand by 2.2% in 2025, with growth expected across key markets including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Uruguay. The exception is Mexico, where GDP is forecast to remain flat.
The outlook has improved on the back of stronger-than-anticipated first-quarter performances in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. Argentina is set to lead the region with a 5.2% rebound, recovering from GDP contractions of 1.7% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2023.
Under President Javier Milei’s stabilization program, Moody’s expects growth momentum to continue, with annual expansions of 3.5% projected for both 2026 and 2027.
Peru is expected to deliver the second-highest growth, at 3.1% in 2025, supported by higher metals prices and robust consumer demand. The economy is projected to expand 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Chile is forecast to grow 2.4% next year, driven by mining activity and record copper prices.
Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is estimated to grow 2.4%, anchored by a strong labor market despite fiscal pressures and persistent inflation. Uruguay is set to expand 2.1%. Mexico, by contrast, is projected to grow only 0.1%, weighed down by tariff uncertainty, austerity measures, and weak investment.
Moody’s cautioned that while labor market resilience and commodity exports are supporting growth, inflation, fiscal imbalances, and policy risks remain key headwinds.
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